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AFGHAN ELECTION AND THE UNITED STATES

World Politics Review   By: Liz P. Anderson  , 08 June 2013

The US being off-hand in Afghan presidential election in 2014 is a good idea, but is neither wise nor practical.  As abandoning Afghanistan after 2014 is not an option for the US, a hand-off in election is the same.  The US toppled the Taliban regime in 2001 and installed of its own - an abortive regime led by Hamid Karzai that is kept for 12 years with intensive life support (150,000 foreign soldiers and billions of dollars a year).  Can you leave your offspring in Intensive Care Unit without thinking what would happen when left unattended?

Today, the Karzai Government is perceived as feeble dominated by corrupt officials and abusive warlords that gave way for the resurgence of the Taliban. Unless Afghanistan can find a more capable successor to Karzai, it is hard to imagine the country would become a reliable, trusted and viable business partner of the International Community. How a capable successor to Karzai can be found? With election? No. Yes.

Election must be accessible to all, free and fair. If not, we must not ridicule ourselves with fake and undemocratic elections. Here, we need to find other ways to give voice to people.  Under the name of smooth transition, we must not pave way for the smooth transition of corruption. We must not continue to keep in power the warlords, human rights abusers and drug businessmen through fake elections. It is enough; we have done it for over 12 years; we did not gain and we will not gain again.

The 2009 presidential election was largely fraud driven and there is no reason to think that the 2014 election will be any different, considering that by then the NATO presence will be at minimum. Karzai and his corrupt team will have to carry out the election largely on their own. For the very reason, Karzai and his team will neither allow neutral people to lead election nor will allow foreigners to supervise the election. Karzai and his team may orchestrate the inauguration of a handpicked successor who could keep the existing corrupt officials, warlords, human rights abusers and drug businessmen in place and allow Karzai to exercise power from behind the scenes. That is what Karzai wants for Afghanistan and the United States of America. By allowing election under the current conditions with US hands-off we will in effect ratify a continuation of Karzai's baleful influence and the continuation of a corrupt government for another at least 10 years. International Community will be forced to channel their taxpayers’ money to these corrupt officials and politicians. The Afghans will conclude that the US is doing all these atrocities against them by design, kept in mind the CIA has been stuffing Karzai with bags of cash.

A better alternative would be to embrace a more politically activist role. The U.S. should pave way for a candidate manoeuvring to succeed Karzai. The new person must have vision for the country; curb corruption and has the capability to coordinate the interests of the regional and global powers to the interests of the Afghans. This person not only must have understanding with US, but have respect among the Afghans as well. The Armed Opposition also feel they can work with him. If the hardliners among Armed Opposition choose to fight him may lose at least half of their support among their own ranks.  The U.S. could then use its influence, including those notorious bags of CIA cash; to do what it can to secure the election of such a candidate is judged most likely to be a strong, unifying leader who will take on both the Taliban and government officials. Only in this case election may find meaning. If we fail to act, we will be leaving the decision not to the Afghan people but to Karzai and his team of warlords, human rights abusers, drug businessmen and corrupt officials. Corruption costs Afghanistan $2.5 billion a year, a quarter of the country's gross domestic product.

The year 2014 is a crucial for all of us as:

• Presidential elections will take place

• A new president will find way to the palace and will be extremely busy making a new government and consolidating his position.

• Economic transition.

• Military transition.

• Peace negotiations. It is time for sincere efforts to achieve a political settlement.

Almost all candidates have anticipated that the pre-engineered selection of the future president, and the ‘election' merely is an instrument for its legitimacy. The following dignitaries are potential candidate for 2014 presidential election.

• The “National Consensus Team” includes Ali Ahmad Jalali, Dr Anwarulhaq Ahady, Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Dr Zalmai Khalilzad, Omer Zakhilwal, Ehsan Bayat and Qayum Karzai. This team, most of them US citizens, wants the current way of governance to continue with some moderate changes - not to the extent to annoy warlords and Karzai. This team has ruled the country for the last 12 years.  They or their close relatives were involved in corruption and looted state properties. Most of the foreign contracts have gone to this group and therefore have made a lot of money. They group has little foot in grassroots and therefore are looking totally to the US blessing. This team has included Qayum Karzai to ensure the president they safeguard his interests. 

• The “Northern Alliance” candidate includes Abdullah Abdullah, Younus Qanoni, Rasul Sayyaf, Mohammad Mohaqiq and Ata Nur. This group of ethnic minorities is mainly consisted of warlords and human rights abusers who control the government.  They have looted state properties and abused human rights. They exploit ethnic differences and enjoy the support of Iran and Russia. This group believes the Pashtuns have no effective vote as they are in war and do not see themselves in the state system. The election will take place in the areas of ethnic minorities and therefore the coming government will be the government of ethnic minorities. In addition, this group has control over the Election Commission. Please note, no one among 7 commissioners in Election Commission is a Pashtun. The commission will declare whoever suits this group. Moreover, this group has the blessing of President Karzai and this is why Karzai does not allow foreigners to oversee the election. This group is principally against the west, but clever enough to change side when needed.

• Hanif Atmar, former Communist and former Minister of Interior under Karzai. This group, Rights and Justice Party, is consisted mainly of former communists who fought alongside the Red Army against the Afghan resistance in 1980s and therefore most of them cannot go to their villages.  Since they have little popular support, therefore they are heavily looking for western support.

• Dr Farouq Azam, head of the Movement for Peaceful Transformation of Afghanistan. He is the only independent candidate who has corruption free record and not worked under Karzai.  He and his team are critical of Karzai government for corruption, human rights abuse and narco-business. Educated in US and UK, coming from Kandahar and served twice as minister, Dr Azam is probably the most popular among all candidates who can walk freely among masses and has a vision for the country. He is famous for his economic development ideas and good governance. Dr Farouq Azam has good contact with all groups including the Armed Opposition. However, being a man of principal, all groups deal with him carefully and with caution.

• Ms Fawzia Kofi, member of the lower house of the Afghan parliament. She is women rights activist. She has little administrative experience with poor ethical record that is crucial in Afghan community.

• Some potential candidates are still waiting for President Karzai's green light in order to kick off their election campaign, in the belief that his support and resources will increase their chances. And while President Karzai is aware of his key role in the upcoming election, he is using the time he has left in office to further boost his authority and impose his candidate of choice, who will carry on his legacy and who is expected to maintain loyalty to him. No one believes election can bring peace and stability in Afghanistan as the past two elections did not play any role in this regard and the next administration will be the continuation of the current corrupt government. Dr Azam’s view is different from other candidates. He wants a real change in the current power system that is based on personality, ethnicity and gun-power to a democratic system based on ideology and parties. Contrary to other candidates, he is critical of the Bonn Conference 2001 that brought warlords to political power without asking them to lay down their arms. With arms and government positions they looted state resources and private properties. It is the main cause of corruption and must be corrected, he argues.

• The US needs to approach all these potential candidates and examine who is more competent for the future leadership to replace Karzai. Such a person must be supported vigorously. Some criterion for examination are as follow:

  • How a comprehensive political settlement can emerge?

  • How the moderate Taliban can be accommodated?

  • How economic development can be boasted?

  • How corruption and narcotics can be curbed?

  • How good governance can be envisaged?

  • How relationship with regional powers is to be reshaped for positive?

  • How the new leader can be a reliable, trusted and viable business partner of the International Community?

- بېرته شاته